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| Activity Resources
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| Activity 4 |
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To help you understand some of the key factors in climate modelling, click on the Interactive icon to work through a simplified simulation.
In reality, climate modelling is extremely complex, because all the variables are not known. The ability to develop mathematical models of climate change is constantly improving, but there are still many competing models, each making different predictions of how the climate will change. All models, currently, show a significant increase in the global mean surface temperature attributable to human influences.
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To understand climate change it is necessary to construct climate models, to explore and predict interactions between different factors. Models are tested for accuracy against known sets of data, before being run forward to predict future changes.
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Comparing modelled and observed temperature
The IPCC comparison between modelled and observed temperatures since the year 1860 is shown in the three charts. Click on the thumbnails.
Natural forcing only
Anthropogenic forcing only
Natural + Anthropogenic
It is clear from these charts that both natural influences and anthropogenic forcing are required to explain the recent rises in temperature.
Running the models forward
What happens when the models are run forward? It depends upon the models used and the scenarios they are asked to run. It seems almost certain, however, that there will be increases in the global mean surface temperature, to the order of +1.5 to +4.5 °C – possibly more, according to some models and scenarios.
Predicting the Earth's temperature - The Earth's temperature from 1901 to 2090 (courtesy the Hadley Centre)
These changes are predicted to be associated with increases in sea level, changes to weather conditions (e.g. more regular and violent winter storms in the UK) and changes to the distribution of habitats and their associated organisms.
The current predictions for the global climate in the twenty-first century are shown for a range of scenarios and models in the charts below. (Chart (a) shows the range of scenarios for CO2 emissions; charts (b) and (c) show the corresponding predictions for temperature change and rise in sea level.
Carbon Dioxide emissions.
Temperature change.
Rise in sea level.
Of course, doing anything about this needs scientific evidence and understanding, but it also requires social, economic and technological changes, which can only be achieved through political will. If you want to explore some of the broader context, a good place to start would be the New Internationalist issue 357, ‘The Big Switch: Climate Change Solutions’ at New Internationalist.
Faced with the sort of predictions climatologists are making, is it sufficient for science teachers to stop at the ‘science’, or should we be tackling some of these broader issues in schools?
If you want to find out more, the Hadley Centre is the UK’s foremost climate research centre and provides a lot of useful information, as does the Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change at IPCC.
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Climatic Research Unit (2003) Information Sheets at http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk
New Internationalist (2003) ‘The Big Switch: Climate Change Solutions’, June, issue number 357.
The Open University (1998) S103 Discovering Science, Block 2 ‘A Temperate Earth?’, Milton Keynes, The Open University.
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Unit Resources
