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| Activity Resources
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| Activity 2 |
There are two key ways of getting meaningful information out of climatic data sets:
- working with global mean surface temperature – GMST.
Click on the Text icon above to read explanations of these techniques. Working with colleagues, discuss how you might model these two processes with students.
You may want to consider:
- using a maximum/minimum thermometer over 24-hour periods;
- data-logging temperature over a longer period;
- comparing your own data with data from the Meteorological Office.
(The Meteorological Office provides monthly rainfall and mean monthly temperature data from 1961 to the present. Click on the link Meteorological Office to access their site: scroll down to ‘Past’ and click on ‘Monthly information’ to look at the statistical details.
Sketch out an outline of a teaching sequence that explores data-smoothing and the concept of GMST.
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Analyses of over 400 proxy climate series (from trees, corals, ice cores and historical records) show that the 1990s was the warmest decade of the millennium and the 20th century the warmest century. The warmest year of the millennium was 1998, and the coldest was probably 1601. (Climatic Research Unit, 2003)
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Throughout historical times, fluctuations in the Earth’s mean temperature have been recorded. During the seventeenth century, the Thames periodically froze over during winter and mini-glaciers were present in the North West Highlands of Scotland. More recently, the 1990s included some of the hottest years ever recorded in the British Isles, and 10 August 2003 was the hottest day ever on record. An annual temperature record for central England has been constructed, beginning in 1659.
Central England temperature record from 1659 to 1995.
Click on the thumbnail. How do the readings for 1660–1700 compare to 1960–2000?
You have probably noticed that in the first period most points were below the mean, but in the latter period, most were above it. Because the data are so scattered, some method is required for seeing the overall trend more clearly. A single ‘line of best fit’ (regression analysis) is not appropriate, as it hides small-scale variations that may be significant. Such changes in the recorded temperatures are manifest throughout the British Isles, resulting in changes to natural fauna and flora. These changes are also having local economic impact, such as the northwards spread of vineyards in the UK. (At the time of writing I believe the most northerly vineyard in the UK is in Swillington, near Leeds.)
For information on changes to flora, click on Science magazine.
For changes to fauna, and economic effects, go to Information Sheet 4, or for the paper quoted at the top of the screen, Information Sheet 1, both at Climatic Research Unit.
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Unit Resources
